SPC MD 90

MD 0090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA

Mesoscale Discussion 0090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska into central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172322Z - 180015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts are possible with
high-based storms this evening and perhaps early tonight.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse, embedded in broader upper
troughing, is overspreading the central Plains, resulting in the
gradual deepening of a surface low over eastern NE. Preceding
southerly flow just above the surface continues to increase in
magnitude, and RAP forecast soundings/short-term forecasts depict
over 50 kts of 925 mb flow poised to overspread far eastern NE into
central IA as the low-level jet intensifies. A shield of
high-based/low-topped convection is approaching from the west, and
will overspread a dry boundary layer over the next few hours. Some
of the stronger virga showers/possible thunderstorms will promote
enough evaporative cooling of the stronger flow just above the
surface, likely resulting in gusty conditions. Given the magnitude
of the flow just above the surface, it is plausible that damaging to
perhaps severe gusts could accompany the stronger showers this
evening.

The severe threat should remain sparse though, so a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40429763 42049793 42389785 42709753 43099690 43329625
            43389556 43339484 43119422 42729377 42229345 41719345
            41179368 40669420 40359473 40169524 40089589 40069629
            40089666 40169720 40429763 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH