SPC MD 1561

MD 1561 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota into
central/northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092058Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a
risk for large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest observations depict ongoing thunderstorms in
close proximity to a convectively augmented shortwave trough noted
over far southern Manitoba with developing, agitated cumulus also
noted farther southwest over northwestern South Dakota. Aided by
ascent ahead of this shortwave and weak convergence along a surface
pre-frontal trough/weak wind shift, expectation is for ongoing
thunderstorm activity to persist southeastward into North Dakota and
for additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop
southwestward into western South Dakota. Moderate to strong buoyancy
(up to 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted via latest mesoanalysis) and
effective shear of 30-40 kts (as sampled by the 18z BIS observed
sounding) will support supercells and a risk for large hail
(including perhaps an isolated instance to around 2" in diameter)
and damaging/severe wind gusts. Uncertainty remains regarding
eventual thunderstorm and severe coverage, but a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed for a portion of the discussion area to cover
these threats should a corridor of greater severe potential become
evident, such as across portions of central/eastern North Dakota
where effective shear is modestly greater and where latest guidance
suggests convective coverage may be greater.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44300060 43880080 43300099 43150108 43080123 43050180
            43070271 43210331 43410363 43760396 44230404 45070381
            45750329 46980165 47980060 49029970 49199950 49209808
            49199769 49049754 48479753 47879764 47419786 45759966
            44300060 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC MD 1560

MD 1560 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri and
northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092053Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is possible late this afternoon as storms form
along an outflow/differential heating boundary. Shear is sufficient
for marginal supercells capable of all hazards.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery continues in the wake of an MCV that
moved through Missouri earlier today. Temperatures to the southwest
of the outflow/differential heating boundary have risen in the upper
80s to low 90s F. Warm advection within this zone as well as near a
weak surface low in southeast Kansas will eventually initiate a few
thunderstorms. CAM guidance has generally suggested this will occur
by 5 PM CDT or thereabouts. Enhanced shear from the MCV (30-35 kt
effective shear) will promote marginal supercell structures. The
primary hazards will be isolated large hail and damaging winds.
Low-level flow is strong enough (see the KSGF VAD) to support
rotating storms. Should supercells maintain intensity, a risk for a
tornado could develop near the surface boundary.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   35929168 36789335 37309414 38079561 38119567 38319563
            38519485 38449350 37409164 36299095 35919162 35929168 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

SPC MD 1559

MD 1559 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092045Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the White Mountains will
progress southwestward through this evening with a threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorm development across the White Mountains of southeastern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico amid a plume of enhanced
mid-level moisture along the eastern periphery of upper-level
ridging. Expectation is for these storms to gradually evolve
south-southwestward off of the high terrain through this evening. As
this evolution occurs, weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) based
atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs of 3.0-3.5 km AGL) will
support a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. Weak effective
shear (less than 20 kts) and deep-layer flow (less than 15-20 kts
sampled by the EMX VWP) will largely limit storm organization and
preclude a more widespread severe risk. Thus, watch issuance is not
expected.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31180890 31190823 31320813 32010813 32590816 32910825
            33230844 33430872 33590908 33650923 33660951 33500999
            33231056 32651117 31851179 31521201 31441197 31191111
            31151093 31180890 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH