SPC MD 1199

MD 1199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Northern Florida and extreme southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191736Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of damaging wind potential is
emerging across northern Florida and far southeast Georgia. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, a cluster of thunderstorms
east of the KTLH radar has developed a consolidated cold pool per
regional velocity imagery. This is likely the result of rapid
updraft collapse based on latest KDP trends; however, latest IR
imagery shows renewed development on the outflow boundary,
suggesting that cold-pool driven propagation may continue for the
short term. The poor shear environment (per regional VWPs) will
likely limit the overall intensity and duration of this convection,
but given downstream warming (temperatures climbing into the low
90s, a few degrees ahead of morning guidance) and steepening of
low-level lapse rates, embedded bursts of damaging winds (most
likely 35-55 mph, but potentially as strong as 60 mph) seem
possible. 

While damaging wind potential appears highest with the eastward
propagating cluster, a few clusters along the FL/GA border north of
the Jacksonville, FL area are similarly propagating into the warming
air mass across northern FL. More isolated downbursts appear
possible with this activity additional convection develops along the
outflow boundaries over the next couple of hours.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30028398 30318349 30578329 30718325 30738301 30718138
            30408134 29918121 29818125 29748155 29728214 29708264
            29768318 29818355 29958378 30028398 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

SPC MD 1198

MD 1198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR RED RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Red River Valley of eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191735Z - 191930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated occurrences of marginally
severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to increase
early this afternoon. Expected severe-weather coverage and intensity
currently appear too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite and mosaic radar
data indicate a gradual increase in storm coverage within a zone of
forcing for ascent preceding a vigorous short-wave trough over
central ND. Cooling temperatures aloft coupled with daytime heating
are contributing to steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg, a notable amount of which is contained within the
lowest 3 km of the ground. 

Area VWPs and objective plan view data indicate that vertical shear
is relatively weak, which should limit the potential for storm
organization and a more robust severe-weather threat. Nonetheless,
the presence of seasonably cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C at
500 mb) may support some marginally severe hail potential in the
strongest storms. In addition, the colocation of relatively large
low-level CAPE and vertical vorticity in the vicinity of existing
surface boundaries suggests some potential for a brief tornado. 

Expected severe-weather coverage and intensity currently appear too
limited to warrant a watch issuance. Greater severe-weather
potential is expected to materialize farther to the southeast later
this afternoon, which may necessitate a watch issuance.

..Mead.. 06/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47419763 48299735 49069736 49369678 48999527 48299443
            47709401 47229413 46599510 46389604 46189660 46479805
            47419763