SPC MD 1201

MD 1201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 1201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191907Z - 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will be possible for the next
couple of hours as a band of thunderstorms approaches the Gulf
Coast.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a band of poorly organized
convection has been drifting southward across southern AL and into
the FL Panhandle. Surface observations have largely been reporting
wind gusts between 20-30 mph with the passage of the line over the
past 30 minutes. However, GOES IR imagery has shown a trend towards
colder cloud-top temperatures associated with stronger updraft
pulses as the line propagates south into a warming air mass where
temperatures are warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. Deep-layer
wind shear remains very poor across the region and will continue to
modulate the overall severe threat; however, this trends towards
stronger updrafts and warming low-level conditions suggests the
potential for very isolated bursts of damaging winds (most likely
35-55 mph) is likely increasing. Areas downstream of the convective
bands may see sporadic damaging gusts over the next couple of hours
as the storms continue to push southward towards the coast.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30238756 30438792 30858815 31168815 31488786 31558754
            31538720 31098676 30848638 30678564 30598467 30608404
            30398387 30118401 29708467 29668515 29848548 30138583
            30318646 30238756 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

SPC MD 1200

MD 1200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN

Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191827Z - 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of large
hail and damaging wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the mid 50s to
around 60, the combination of daytime heating and cooling mid-level
temperatures are contributing to air mass destabilization with
MLCAPE expected to increase to 1000-1200 J/kg this afternoon. That
destabilization process will support the southeastward advance of
ongoing thunderstorms over the Red River Valley into the discussion
area, with additional in-situ development also possible.

Forecast soundings and the current KMPX VWP indicate strong
mid/upper-level wind fields, with long straight-line hodographs
forecast by mid to late afternoon. As such, the potential will exist
for splitting supercells capable of large hail, potentially up to
golf-ball size. There is some model signal that storms may merge
into bowing structures by late afternoon or early evening, signaling
an increase in damaging wind potential. The tendency for the
low-level wind field to veer to a westerly direction with time is
expected to limit low-level shear magnitudes and resultant tornado
potential.

Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Mead/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46559420 46139245 45669152 45279111 44629120 44189168
            44119255 44539380 45159455 45869520 46099522 46099522
            46409491 46559420 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN