SPC MD 737

MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Ohio and West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100000Z - 100200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Local/isolated risk for strong wind gusts will persist for
a few hours.  WW not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an uptick in convection from
southern Ohio to northern West Virginia, in the vicinity of a
southeastern Ohio surface low, and attendant baroclinic zones. 
Ahead of the front, RAP-based objective analysis suggests that
diurnal heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE to near 1000 J/kg across
the Ohio River Valley area, which is contributing to the convective
uptick, ahead of the mid-level vort max crossing Lake Erie/Ohio at
this time.

Moderately strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower and
middle troposphere is indicated across this region, which may
support some additional, small-scale convective organization. 
Attendant severe risk -- primarily in the form of locally
gusty/damaging winds with stronger convective elements -- will
likely continue for the next 2 to 3 hours.  Thereafter, as nocturnal
cooling commences, severe risk is expected to gradually diminish. 
As such, limited risk -- both in temporally and in terms of
magnitude -- will likely preclude any need for WW issuance.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON   38908359 39228308 39638161 39837995 39417924 38597959
            37848057 37908187 38548299 38908359 

SPC MD 736

MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

Mesoscale Discussion 0736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Louisiana...southeastern
Arkansas...and west-central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092324Z - 100100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms continue to gradually increase across the
west-central Mississippi Vicinity.  Additional storm development may
require WW issuance to be considered.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection gradually increasing
in coverage and intensity across the west-central Mississippi
vicinity, in the vicinity of a west-to-east baroclinic zone.  Though
broad-scale ascent remains weak, the thermodynamic environment
(characterized by 4000 to 5000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) remains
strongly favorable for intense convection.  Given enhanced mid-level
westerlies contributing to favorable shear for organized storms,
conditional severe-weather potential may be realized across this
region over the next few hours.  We will continue to monitor
convective evolution, with additional development potentially
requiring consideration of new WW issuance, or extension of
existing/nearby watches.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33919194 34209061 34018960 32678929 32469005 32139191
            33919194