SPC MD 1714

MD 1714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into south-central South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 190019Z - 190215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Though storm coverage is uncertain, some increase in
severe potential is anticipated in parts of north-central Nebraska
over the next few hours. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Signs of convective development are evident on visible
satellite near a weak surface low in north-central Nebraska. Some
high-based activity is also present farther southwest near North
Platte. Strong buoyancy has developed in central Nebraska where
temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Effective shear
of 35-40 kts would support organized storms/supercells capable of
mainly large hail and severe wind gusts. Temperatures aloft are
warmer with southern extent which is contributing to slow
development and uncertain storm coverage. However, a modest increase
the low-level jet may help initiate additional storms by mid/late
evening.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   41710169 42870017 43349943 43239804 42779784 42019903
            41789973 41490057 41500173 41710169 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN