Forecast Discussion

069
FXUS61 KBUF 090616
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold
front through tonight. A few of these storms may become severe with
damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

2) A few showers may linger Thursday mainly across the Southern
Tier, with dry weather returning Friday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
ahead of a cold front through tonight. A few of these storms may
become severe with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

An unseasonably deep low for early September will move across Hudson
Bay and into northern Quebec through tonight. An associated cold
front, currently located across the Upper Great Lakes region will
approach the region today before crossing tonight. Widespread dry
weather across the eastern Great Lakes region will end this morning.
Isentropic lift and increasing moisture will bring light rain
showers through daybreak, with the highest chance along and north of
Interstate-90.

The mid-level pattern becomes zonal today as a plume of deep
moisture enters the eastern Great Lakes region. Daytime heating and
increasing southerly flow will lead to surface based instability
between 750-1500 J/kg across western NY, with the higher end
across the western Southern Tier where less cloud cover is
expected. Cloud cover and showers will likely limit
destabilization across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

A 40-knot 850mb jet will move across the forecast area today with
the core of the strongest winds expected to extend from Lake Erie to
the Saint Lawrence Valley. Breezy conditions are expected northeast
of the Lakes today. Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected across the
Niagara Frontier and the Saint Lawrence Valley. The strengthening
low to mid level wind profile today will lead to 0-6km shear around
40 knots this afternoon through this evening. Forecast surface
analysis depicts a pre-frontal trough will cross the region this
afternoon through evening. Low level convergence coupled with
instability and shear will support thunderstorms with the potential
of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible across
western and north-central NY. The higher probability lies across the
western Southern Tier this evening, where the best chance for
destabilization will occur. The primary threat remains damaging
winds, however due to increasing storm relative helicity when SBCAPE
is the highest, an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.

Heavy downpours are expected in thunderstorms through this evening
as a plume of forecast PWATS of 1.8 inches (99th percentile) crosses
the region. Storms are expected to be progressive, however due to
high PWATS and training along the frontal boundary there remains a
low risk of flooding across the western Southern Tier to eastern
Lake Ontario region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers may linger Thursday mainly across the
Southern Tier, with dry weather returning Friday through Saturday.

The cold front will become orientated west to east south of the New
York State line Thursday. A few showers may linger across western NY
into Thursday morning. Cloud cover will slowly decrease from north
to south Thursday with most areas rain-free.

Surface high pressure will build into the region late Thursday
through Thursday night and the cold front will move away from the
forecast area. Dry weather is expected through the start of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through daybreak VFR conditions will prevail...with high clouds
thickening and lowering into a mid level deck from west to east as
warm advection continues aloft.

As we move into the daylight hours...a couple passing warm frontal
segments will bring mainly scattered showers to western New York
between the morning and early afternoon hours...though these could
become a bit more numerous at times near the south shore of Lake
Ontario. Meanwhile across the North Country...more widespread
showers will develop by late morning/midday and continue into early
afternoon. Expect some MVFR ceilings to develop across the North
Country where the more widespread showers will lead to more
effective saturation of the lower levels...while mainly VFR
conditions (albeit with continued lowering of ceilings to around
3500-5000ft) should persist into mid to late afternoon elsewhere. A
tightening pressure gradient will also lead to increasingly breezy
conditions as we push through the day...particularly northeast
(downwind) of Lake Erie where winds could gust to 30 knots or so in
the afternoon. Elsewhere...gusts to 20 knots or so will be more
likely.

Later this afternoon and evening a pre-frontal trough and cold front
will cross our region...with these accompanied by a period of more
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a very moist
airmass in place...any thunderstorms and heavier showers will be
capable of producing brief/highly localized reductions to LIFR/IFR.
Depending upon how unstable our airmass gets...a few isolated
stronger storms could develop and produce some highly localized wind
gusts of 30-50 knots...with the greatest risk for these found across
the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes Region.

Following the passage of the cold front...the showers and storms
will then taper off from northwest to southeast between the mid
evening and early overnight hours...with dry weather then expected
to follow for the balance of the night. This said...increased low
level moisture in the wake of the front will result in a period of
MVFR stratus that should last through at least the early overnight
hours...though the higher terrain will be more likely to see
ceilings dip to IFR/LIFR levels. Late in the night...some modest
drying may allow flight conditions to return to VFR across the lake
plains.

Outlook...

Thursday...Improvement to VFR, with a few isolated showers possible
mainly across the Western Southern Tier.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR and dry...though a few showers
will be possible across the Southern Tier Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southwest winds will strengthen on the Lakes as low pressure
moves across Hudson Bay and northern Quebec through tonight. A
strong low level jet will move across the eastern end of Lake Erie
and winds of 15 to 25 knots and wind gusts around 30 knots are
expected this afternoon through evening. Small Crafts will likely be
needed and will likely be expanded to Lake Ontario tonight. The low
level jet will move east of the region Thursday, however 15 to 25
kts is expected on the eastern end of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Thursday night
through Friday with subsiding winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HSK

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion