Forecast Discussion

769
FXUS61 KBUF 081106
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
606 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Began the stronger downslope wind gusts off the Chautauqua Ridge and
Tug Hill a bit earlier tonight. Otherwise no significant chances
made to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing multiple chances for stronger wind gusts, with
southeast downslope flow tonight off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug
Hill Plateau, then regionwide Friday on a south to southwest flow,
and again Sunday region-wide.

2) Warm airmass leading to snowpack ablation through this weekend,
with increased runoff from snowmelt and rain, though with low
chances for any river/creek flooding and continued very low chance
for any ice jam flooding.

3) Return briefly to seasonal temperatures Sunday night and into
Monday, with lake effect snow downwind of the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A series of storm systems will pass across the Great Lakes region
through this weekend. Initial southeast winds tonight could
downslope off the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill to advisory level
speeds. Though there will be veering winds to southwest up through
the core of the 60 to 70 knot LLJ, the still 50 to 60 knots of flow
at the top of the inversion will be capable of surface southeast
winds downsloping to the lee of the mountains, during favorable
timing for these occurrences of downslope winds, potentially to
headline worthy gusts.

This LLJ will linger across the region Friday, with now south-
southwest winds that may also reach to advisory levels. NBM gives
highest chances to 70% probability of 40 mph gusts across the higher
terrain of WNY Friday, with an additional opportunity for winds
gusting to near advisory levels just behind a cold front passage.
Regardless, Friday will be a breezy day regionwide.

Behind a second cold front Sunday, a weaker jet of 50 knots, but
with favorable mixing within a cold air advection scheme will also
bring a windy day, with gusts into the 40 mph range downwind of both
eastern Great Lakes...and across the Lake Plain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As a southern branch of the jet stream becomes active over our
region through the weekend, with multiple systems...rainfall
combined with air temperatures in the 40s and 50s will bring
snowpack melting. The warmest day will likely be Friday where
favorable downslope areas on a south to southwest wind flow,
combined with 850 hPa temperaturewise reaching into the upper single
digits Celsius behind a warm front will promote highs well into the
50s and possibly even 60F for the Lake Plain...with temperatures
possibly reaching near 50F for the lower elevations east of Lake
Ontario.

The first system Friday will likely bring a quarter or so of
rainfall, while the second system Saturday into Saturday night will
likely bring a half inch or so of rainfall to the region. A strong
area of high pressure over Canada funneling colder air southward may
allow for freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night east of Lake
Ontario, especially the Saint Lawrence Valley with light icing
possible.

MMEFS continues to highlight river and creek rises, with the Buffalo
area creeks likely to rise to near or into action stage. The risk
for reaching minor flooding remains low as overall QPF for both
systems combined may remain under an inch which will likely not be
enough for flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind a cold front Sunday, cold air advection will return 850 hPa
temperatures to around -13C to -14C, with the coldest air forecasted
to lie across Lake Erie. Wrap around moisture behind a departing
shortwave trough will bring a brief period of lake effect snow on a
west to northwest wind flow. Saturation through the snow DGZ looks
to be around a 12 hour period with favorable lake effect snow
parameters...enough to yield several inches of snow, to potentially
headline worthy, Sunday night into Monday morning off both eastern
Great Lakes. Quick onset of drier air, and shortwave ridge of high
pressure, in a progressive flow will end the lake snows early
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of this writing our area still remains under the influence of
widespread low cloud cover and some fog...with the latter now
primarily found east of Lake Ontario. Owing to this...flight
conditions currently mostly range from MVFR south of Lake Ontario
to LIFR/IFR across the North Country.

As we move into the daylight hours...the axis of surface-based
ridging will slide off to our east...with increasing southerly flow
and associated low level drying spreading across our region from
west to east. This will help to scour out the lower clouds and fog
in a similar manner...with this taking place first across western
New York this morning...and this afternoon east of Lake Ontario.
This will result in flight conditions improving to VFR.

Tonight the surface high will drift east to the Atlantic
coastline...while low pressure makes its way from Iowa to the
Michigan Straits. Continued warm air advection out ahead of the low
will spread thickening/lowering high and mid-level clouds across the
area from west to east...with a few rain showers becoming possible
by late tonight...particularly across far western New York. All this
being said...flight conditions are expected to remain predominantly
VFR. Of greater concern to aviation interests will be the presence
of an increasing 55-65 knot low level jet...which will lead to low
level wind shear developing from west to east during the second half
of the night. Late in the night some of stronger winds aloft will
begin to partially mix down to the surface along the Lake Erie
shoreline and along the north slopes of the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario...which will alleviate the LLWS in these areas but also
lead to southerly surface wind gusts potentially reaching to as high
as 40-45 knots.

Outlook...

Friday...Deterioration to IFR/MVFR in rain showers and developing
lower ceilings...and lingering LLWS Friday morning giving way to
south to southwest winds gusting to 30-40kts.

Friday night...IFR/MVFR early improving to mainly VFR/MVFR with
diminishing winds and shower chances.

Saturday...Mainly VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in rain later in the
day.

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy with southwesterly/westerly gusts to 40 knots possible.

Monday...A couple leftover snow showers possible east of the
lakes...otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of passing low pressure systems will bring elevated winds
and waves to the eastern Great Lakes the end of this week and
through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

Southeast winds late tonight and into Friday over Lake Erie, and
later the eastern end of Lake Ontario, may reach small craft
thresholds...though the higher waves will remain over Canadian
waters.

South to southwesterly flow Friday will bring these higher waves to
the northeast ends of the Lakes.

There will be a brief lull Friday night into Saturday before winds
increase with a second storm system for the remainder of the
weekend. Elevated southwest to westerly flow Monday will maintain
small craft conditions on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
         Saturday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...JJR/PP
MARINE...Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion