Forecast Discussion

432
FXUS61 KBUF 201728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through the
weekend.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in place across the Ohio
Valley and eastern Great Lakes through Wednesday night, maintaining
dry weather and clear skies. Some river valley fog will develop late
tonight through Wednesday morning across the Southern Tier, and
again late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

A mid level trough will dig southeast across Quebec Thursday, with
an associated cold front moving southeast across the eastern Great
Lakes. The majority of the height falls and large scale ascent will
be displaced well northeast of the area across Quebec, leaving a
weakly forced and moisture starved cold front crossing our region.
This front will bring some increase in cloud cover, but will likely
move through dry. Cooler air aloft will bring some increase in lake
induced instability, but the lack of synoptic scale moisture will
likely only support a few lake effect and upslope clouds.

High pressure surface and aloft will build back into the eastern
Great Lakes and New England Friday through the weekend with a
continuation of dry weather and sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in place across the Ohio
Valley and eastern Great Lakes through Wednesday and beyond, with
clear skies and VFR prevailing most of the time. The one exception
will be river valley fog across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
late tonight through Wednesday morning with local IFR. The setup
does not appear favorable for the fog to reach KJHW.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Sunday...VFR with the exception of late night and
morning river valley fog across the Southern Tier each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northeasterlies will continue to produce low end Small
Craft Advisory conditions in the nearshore zones from the Niagara
River to Mexico Bay through late this afternoon before diminishing
somewhat this evening. Northeast winds will continue to produce a
moderate chop on both lakes tonight through early Wednesday morning
before diminishing further through the day Wednesday.

Another period of elevated north to northeast winds will develop
Thursday through Thursday night behind a weak cold front. Winds and
waves may approach Small Craft Advisory criteria for portions of the
lower Great Lakes before subsiding Friday afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion