Forecast Discussion

981
FXUS61 KBUF 101115
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few rain showers today through tonight across the North
Country, dry and warmer elsewhere.

2) Unsettled and colder weather will return Wednesday night through
the end of the week, with some minor wet snow potential mainly
across higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few rain showers today through tonight across the
North Country, dry and warmer elsewhere.

Another fast moving mid level shortwave and associated surface low
will cross southern Quebec today, reaching New England this evening.
The southern extent of DPVA and height falls will brush northern NY
today. Modest lake induced instability will combine with the
synoptic scale forcing to produce a few light showers across the
North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley today into this evening. The
best shower coverage will be across the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks with an added boost of upslope flow. A few leftover
showers this evening will end overnight as synoptic scale moisture
and forcing depart, and a weak ridge axis builds into the eastern
Great Lakes.

Today will be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching the
upper 50s to lower 60s across the lower elevations of Western and
Central NY, with low to mid 50s for higher terrain and the North
Country. It will become quite breezy again as a belt of 30 to 40
knot flow in the boundary layer crosses the eastern Great Lakes.
This will partially mix to the surface from mid morning through mid
afternoon, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range areawide.

Wednesday will be mainly dry for most of the day with increasing
clouds ahead of the next system. Some light rain may develop towards
evening across Western NY.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled and colder weather will return Wednesday
night through the end of the week, with some minor wet snow
potential mainly across higher terrain.

Bottom line up front. While the weather will be chilly and
unsettled Thursday through Saturday, latest model and ensemble
data suggests minimal winter weather impacts through the period.

The longwave pattern will amplify Thursday through Friday with a
sharp ridge over the Rockies forcing a deep trough and broad closed
low to become established over the eastern CONUS and southeastern
Canada. At the surface, an initial low will reach the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night, then give way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis off
the Mid Atlantic coast by Thursday. An elongated surface low, or
possibly a series of individual low centers will then move northeast
and offshore of New England Thursday night through Saturday before
reaching the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night.

Large scale forcing will increase Wednesday night through Thursday
as the closed low takes shape upstream, with significant height
falls spreading east across the Great Lakes. This will combine with
frontogenesis and deformation north of the initial low track to
bring periods of light rain Wednesday night through Thursday across
the region. Precip type will stay all rain through Thursday evening,
with the possible exception of the highest terrain of the North
Country.

Thursday night through Saturday, cold air will deepen across the
eastern Great Lakes as the surface low strengthens off the New
England coast, and the mid level closed low matures overhead. The
stronger synoptic scale forcing will focus along the New England
coast and well east of our area, leaving a weakly forced moist
northerly flow regime across the eastern Great Lakes. Abundant wrap
around moisture will combine with lake induced instability and north
to northeast flow to produce occasional showers through the period,
with the best coverage across higher terrain from upslope
enhancement.

The airmass will grow cold enough to allow the rain to mix with and
change to wet snow across higher terrain Thursday night through
Friday. The coldest air aloft will then arrive Friday night through
Saturday, when lower elevations will have the best chance of a mix
or change to wet snow. The lack of stronger synoptic scale forcing
and short fetch northerly flow will likely keep precipitation rates
light, and light wet snow falling on warm ground will struggle to
accumulate.

The latest probabilistic forecasts from the full ensemble suite of
the NBM and LREF Grand Ensemble suggest a high likelihood of very
minor accumulations across higher terrain Friday through Saturday,
but minimal chance of anything more than very minor impacts.
Ensemble data suggests no accumulation for lower elevations
including the main population centers of the region.

This system will gradually pull away Sunday through Monday with a
return to dry weather early next week. Cool temperatures will
persist for a few days before a warming trend develops by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low stratus has departed Western NY with a return to VFR, but the
low clouds and MVFR CIGS will hold strong across the North Country
through much of today.

Another fast moving mid level trough will move across southern
Quebec today, reaching New England by this evening. This feature
will combine with limited lake induced instability to produce a few
light showers across the North Country. The rain will be light with
mainly VFR VSBY. MVFR CIGS will persist across higher terrain this
afternoon through tonight, with lower elevations likely improving to
VFR. The rest of Western and Central NY will be dry today and
tonight with VFR prevailing.

It will be quite breezy again today, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
areawide. Winds will quickly diminish this evening as a weak ridge
axis builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR CIGS possible across higher terrain and the North
Country in the morning, otherwise dry and VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain.

Friday through Saturday...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain and wet snow
showers. Snow will be most prevalent across higher terrain.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will cross southern Quebec today, bringing another
period of moderate to strong westerlies on the lower Great Lakes.
This will produce solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on both
lakes through this evening. Winds will then quickly diminish tonight
as a weak ridge axis builds into the lower Great Lakes.

Low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, then
give way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis offshore of the Mid
Atlantic Thursday. The coastal low will deepen as it moves northeast
offshore of New England Thursday night through Saturday. This system
will bring an extended period of moderate northeast to north winds
Thursday through Saturday, with another round of Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion