Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS61 KBUF 191658
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1258 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy conditions continue this afternoon with some showers and
thunderstorms possible south of Lake Ontario.

2) A few more spotty showers possible this weekend, but most of the
time will be rain free.

3) There is an increasing potential for widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms across the region from Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy conditions continue this afternoon with some
showers and thunderstorms possible south of Lake Ontario.

Unseasonably deep low pressure will continue to move east across New
Brunswick into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through tonight. This
system will continue to support gusty winds this afternoon, though
not as strong as yesterday. Diurnal mixing will support downward
momentum transfer of the 25-35 knots available near the top of the
mixed boundary layer, with surface wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range
in most areas and up to 35 mph east and southeast of Lake Ontario
through late afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening with the
loss of diurnal mixing.

Cool air aloft and residual low level moisture will allow scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
The best coverage of rain will likely be along a lake breeze driven
convergence zone from the Niagara Peninsula and northern portion of
the Buffalo Metro area extending east along the NYS Thruway to near
Rochester and into the western Finger Lakes. A few showers will also
cross the western Southern Tier and the North Country.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A few more spotty showers possible this weekend, but
most of the time will be rain free.

Most of the showers will end this evening with the loss of diurnal
instability. A few showers will persist east of Lake Ontario
overnight as moist cyclonic flow continues. The best chance of
measurable rain overnight will be across the higher terrain of the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks with an added boost of
upslope flow.

Saturday will be drier than today, but a few scattered showers and
isolated thunder will continue east of Lake Ontario especially
across the western Adirondacks as moist northwest upslope flow
continues. A few spotty showers may also develop across the western
Southern Tier, with mainly dry weather prevailing elsewhere. Sunday
will be similar, with a few more showers and isolated thunder across
the North Country, and a few spotty showers across the higher
terrain inland from the lakes across Western and Central NY.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is an increasing potential for widespread rain
and a few thunderstorms across the region from Sunday night through
Monday.

A shortwave trough is expected to eject out of the central Rockies
Sunday. Deep southerly flow across the southern Plains will interact
with a developing area of low pressure. There is uncertainty in the
track of the low as it moves east, but ensemble mean MSLP shows the
low deepening as it moves into the Ohio Valley, then weaken as it
moves into southern New England.

This system has the potential to bring widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms to western and north-central NY Sunday night through
Monday. The chance for precipitation ranges from medium (50-70%)
across the northern tier of the forecast area and high (70-90%)
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. The amount of rain
received will depend on the track of the low. At this time, the
ensemble mean MSLP track is moving the low near the NY/PA border,
which keeps the heavy rain and flood threat low for our area. Any
northward trend may increase the chances for heavy rain across the
western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. There could also be a
few strong thunderstorms Monday, but that will depend on the track
of the low and if we get into the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool air aloft and residual low level moisture will continue to
promote abundant diurnal cumulus and stratocumulus through the rest
of the afternoon along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries with
mainly VFR bases. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon as modest instability develops. The best
coverage will likely be along a convergence zone extending from near
KBUF/KIAG eastward towards KROC and the western Finger Lakes. A few
showers may also move across the western Southern Tier and the North
Country. Any of the heavier showers may produce brief/local VSBY
restrictions.

Dry weather will return for most of the area tonight, although a few
showers will linger east of Lake Ontario especially across higher
terrain. Areas of MVFR CIGS will expand east of Lake Ontario, with
IFR across higher terrain overnight through early Saturday morning.
A few showers and MVFR CIGS may continue east of Lake Ontario
Saturday, and a few showers may develop across the western Southern
Tier as well. Otherwise, mainly dry weather and VFR will prevail for
the rest of the area with less wind than the past few days.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a few isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms at times with local/brief restrictions.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. Chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move slowly east across the Canadian
Maritimes through Saturday. Moderate westerlies in the wake of this
system will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory criteria winds
and waves on Lake Erie through this evening, western Lake Ontario
through tonight, and the east half of Lake Ontario through Saturday.
Light winds will finally return Sunday as the pressure gradient
relaxes over the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of above average lake levels, moderately strong
westerly winds, and significant wave action may bring an
increased risk of minor lakeshore flooding at the east end of
Lake Ontario through this evening. Forecast winds and waves
continue to run near the low end of the established threshold
for lakeshore flooding. A Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in
effect for Oswego and Jefferson counties. Impacts are expected
to be minor.

Flooding is most probable in low lying shoreline areas from
northern Oswego County into Jefferson County. Water levels may
also be elevated along the Saint Lawrence River in the Thousand
Islands region as strong southwest winds force an increased
flow of water down the river.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for NYZ001-
     002.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for
     NYZ003>005.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ006-
     007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion