Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS61 KBUF 290015
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
715 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for Northern Erie and Niagara
county through 10 PM this evening.

Minor adjustment to increase snowfall amounts east of Lake Ontario
across Oswego county, where 1 to 2 feet, or more of snow will be
possible through Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Localized light to moderate lake effect snow and blowing snow
northeast of Lake Erie through this evening.

2) Heavy lake effect snow to persist off Lake Ontario through the
rest of the week, with bands varying in location and intensity.

3) A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized light to moderate lake effect snow and
blowing snow northeast of Lake Erie through this evening.

The next in a series of shortwave trough and front will cross the
Lower Great Lakes through this evening. With the shortwave nearing
the area, winds have backed to the southwest. With favorable over-
lake parameters and EQL rising to near 9K feet and given some
limited open waters on Lake Erie we have seen a narrow band develop
off the lake. This band will drift south across the Buffalo Metro
area this evening. When the shift back south occurs, the band will
continue it southwards movement and then fall apart as shear
increases and lake fetch decreases. After that...we will see just
some lingering snow showers or flurries east of the lake overnight.

Expect snowfall rates of up to 1" per hour in the heart of the
narrow band this evening and limited visibilities due to blowing
snows. Where the band resides the longest...snowfall amounts of up
to an additional 2" will be possible. Winter Weather Advisories are
in effect for Northern Erie and Niagara county.


Key Message 2...Heavy lake effect snow to persist off Lake Ontario
through the rest of the week, with bands varying in location and
intensity.

Heavy lake effect snow will continue through at least Thursday off
Lake Ontario, with somewhat more limited lake effect snow then
persisting Friday through Saturday. Lake induced equilibrium levels
will continue to run around 9-10K feet through Thursday with an
arctic airmass in place. The dendritic growth zone is found low in
the boundary layer in such a cold airmass, but is still sufficiently
deep to support fluffy snow and high snow:water ratios.

Two lake effect bands impacting Jefferson County early this evening
but will consolidate back into one heavy band by later in the
evening and move south across the Tug Hill region back into Oswego
County overnight.

This band will likely take on anti-cyclonic curvature late tonight
and Thursday morning as a strong land breeze circulation develops
along the south shore, with the east end of the band bending inland
across western Oswego County and touching potentially far northern
Cayuga County. Snowfall rates will increase again reach 2-3" per
hour overnight through Thursday morning. The band will stay in this
general area through early afternoon Thursday, then settle a little
farther south and start to hug much of the south shore of the lake
later in the afternoon, with some weakening likely.

While the near constant band motion continues to make this a
difficult forecast in terms of timing and location of the heaviest
accumulations. Guidance suggest that the band will have the most
residence time across Oswego County, where its likely to see snowfall
measured in feet (1-2 feet, or more) in the most persistent
snowfall. Elsewhere, expect another 6-12 inches across portions of
southern Jefferson and far western Lewis counties. Higher
uncertainty remains across northern Cayuga but its not out of the
question we could see 5-10 inches across the far northeast corner of
the county.

On Thursday....a cold front will push south across the area sending
lake snows southwards with lake effect snows then focused southeast
of the lake. That said...it will take some time for EQL to fall
below 5K through the day Friday, so expected some measure of
accumulating snows during this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A frigid airmass will remain locked in place through
the weekend.

A large -2SD trough currently centered over ON/QC Provinces will
slowly translate southward across the Great Lakes through Friday.
The deep Arctic airmass within this trough will effectively keep the
frigid, below normal temperatures locked in place through this
weekend. Wind chills will continue to run below zero, with negative
teens not uncommon during the nighttime hours. The primary timeframe
of concern through the next 7 days will be Thursday night into
Friday as the trough axis approaches with a reinforcing cold front
causing 850mb temps to plummet back to between -23C and -25C. With a
light to modest northwesterly breeze in place behind the front, this
will translate to wind chills well into the negative teens in most
areas. It appears increasingly likely that these values will be more
in the -20F to -30F range or even lower across the North Country.
Cold Weather headlines of some form will likely be needed for most,
if not all of the CWA for this timeframe as we draw nearer.

A rather pronounced modification of the overhead airmass will occur
over the weekend into early next weekend as the trough moves further
south and interacts with a secondary wave moving across the Gulf.
This is what will spur the development of the robust coastal low
near the Carolinas, though the eastern Great Lakes 850mb temps will
quickly warm to around -9C or -10C. Not warm by most measures, and
sfc temps will still in all likelihood remain well below freezing,
though this should help take the edge off the frigid wind chills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to impact terminals east and
northeast of the lakes with IFR-LIFR conditions to include KART,
KBUF at times into this evening.

Areas outside of the lake effect...will mainly see VFR conditions,
with at times MVFR.

An approaching shortwave trough will send lake snows back south this
evening. This will send lake snows south of KART towards KFZY for
much of tonight where we will see IFR-LIFR conditions into Thursday.

The narrow band of lake effect off of Lake Erie will also push back
through and then south of the KBUF terminal this evening. With the
southward push...KJHW will then see periodic snow showers and a mix
of MVFR to IFR overnight

Outlook...

Thursday...Localized lake effect snow with LIFR east and southeast
of Lake Ontario. Much weaker lake effect snow will produce localized
IFR east of Lake Erie. VFR/MVFR outside of lake effect areas.

Friday...Lake effect snow along the south shore of Lake Ontario with
local IFR. VFR/MVFR elsewhere.

Saturday...Snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario with MVFR/IFR.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated west to southwest winds will continue into this evening on
Lake Ontario then become northwest by Thursday through Friday. This
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on the lake most of
the time through the end of the week.

Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001-010.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ005>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion