Forecast Discussion

469
FXUS61 KBUF 112157
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
557 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the western
Southern Tier, and the Heat Advisory previously in effect.

Severe weather risk continuing to lower for Friday for much of
western New York and the Finger Lakes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity Friday. Warmest
heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and possibly
allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered to occasionally more numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected through Friday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity Friday.
Warmest heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and
possibly allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

With areas from the Finger Lakes westward having been worked
over/cooled by convection...the Heat Advisory previously in
effect for this afternoon and evening has been cancelled.

A mid-level ridge over New York State will exit east into New
England Friday. Associated heat and humidity will continue into
Friday, however due to the exiting mid-level ridge and approaching
surface trough/cold front, any chance of headline-worthy heat
appears to be limited to portions of the Finger Lakes/central
NY and looks to be very marginal in nature...with confidence in
apparent temps reaching Heat Advisory criteria continuing to
lower.

In the wake of the aforementioned frontal passage Friday, cooler and
more comfortable weather are expected regionwide.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered to occasionally more numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected through Friday evening.

Leading edge of stronger convection has pushed eastward into the
far eastern Finger Lakes and central New York...and will continue
to slide eastward and weaken through early this evening. With
the airmass behind it having been worked over...the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for the western Southern
Tier.

A trough across the upper Great Lakes this afternoon, will continue
to deepen and push east into eastern Great Lakes Friday, where its
resultant cold front will slide east across the region. Ahead of the
front, the heat and humidity, an unstable airmass in addition to an
increasing wind field will support the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms with the primary . Due to the quicker nature of the
front`s arrival, the best coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
limited to the eastern reaches of the CWA. Otherwise, with PWAT
values of 1.5 inches across the area will continue to support
torrential downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The moist airmass over the region will continue through Friday ahead
of a cold front crossing the area. Within this moist airmass,
scattered showers and thunderstorms that cross the terminals will
have the potential to cause lower VSBYs within downpours. CIGs will
also vary depending on location of showers/storms and elevation
across the area. Flight categories through mid afternoon on Friday
with any lowering due to brief heavy rain to IFR are possible and
brief LIFR can`t be ruled out, especially over the higher terrain.

The best chance for showers/storms today is expected for this
afternoon into the early evening mainly for areas south of Lake
Ontario, and especially south of I90. A few scattered showers will
be possible later this evening, but should be limited in coverage
and intensity. Outside of any showers/storms flight conditions will
remain mostly VFR, with some MVFR CIGs possible over the higher
terrain. West to southwest winds will continue to gust to the 20 to
25 knot range, with the strongest gusts expected for areas northeast
of Lake Erie.

Tonight, mainly VFR flight conditions are expected to continue, but
lowering CIGs to MVFR will be possible starting a few hours before
daybreak on Friday morning, especially over the higher terrain,
where some IFR levels are possible. A few scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out tonight, especially closer
to daybreak.

Friday, CIGs will lower to MVFR and IFR as a pre frontal trough and
the cold front cross the area. Showers and thunderstorms will move
into the area and expand some in coverage. Shower and storm
potential will increase from west to east. Earlier timing of the
cold frontal passage will reduce the instability available for
showers/storms to develop for the western areas. This will lead to
better timing for eastern portions of the area to have increased
daytime heating ahead of the front. Further reductions to CIGs and
VSBY will be possible within showers/storms that drop heavier rain
at times during the day on Friday. CIGs are expected to improve
during the mid to late afternoon hours behind the passing cold front
to VFR.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few
showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible within a few showers/storms
that may move across the area

&&

.MARINE...
10 to 15 knot winds out of the west to southwest will cause choppy
conditions through Friday, but waves are expected to remain below 3
feet. Some weakening of the winds and lowering of waves can be
expected overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Winds will increase some briefly ahead of an with a passing cold
front on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
through Friday until the cold front crosses the region. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon and
early evening, and then again on Friday ahead of the passing cold
front. Friday showers and storm potential will increase from west to
east.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ/JJR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion