Forecast Discussion

098
FXUS61 KBUF 301008
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
608 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs east of Lake Ontario through early this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this
morning, with dry weather and unseasonably cool temperatures
otherwise prevailing through tonight.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half
of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers east of Lake Ontario will end
early this morning, with dry weather and unseasonably cool
temperatures otherwise prevailing through tonight.

As of this writing...a few leftover spotty light showers/sprinkles
still linger across the North Country due to lingering moisture/
cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing closed low. These
will end early this morning as expansive Canadian high pressure over
Northern Ontario builds southeastward across the Great Lakes and
brings a return to completely dry weather for the bulk of today and
tonight. With 850 mb temps bottoming out between zero and +4C this
morning and then only warming slightly this afternoon...today will
be an unseasonably cool day by late May standards...with highs
mainly ranging from the lower 60s across the lower elevations to the
upper 50s across the higher terrain...and a moderately brisk north-
northeasterly breeze making it feel even a bit cooler at times.
Clear skies/light winds and the cool/dry airmass will then allow for
a chilly night tonight...with lows ranging from the 40s across the
lake plains to the upper 30s across the interior of the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes...where a few spots could even get briefly
cold enough to support some isolated patchy frost. Even if this were
to occur though...its limited areal and temporal scope would
preclude the need for any Frost Advisories.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below normal temperatures through
the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times
east of Lake Ontario.

During the first half of next week a large/deep upper trough draped
from New England/the Canadian Maritimes southward across the western
Atlantic will gradually evolve into a closed low somewhere off the
mid-Atlantic coastline...while a pronounced Omega Block over central
Canada weakens and devolves into broader/flatter ridging over the
western/central Great Lakes. During this time our region will remain
embedded within the broad northerly flow in between these two
features...with the latter resulting in an extended period of near
to slightly below (but quite comfortable) temperatures. At the same
time...periodic shortwave impulses dropping through the backside of
the larger-scale mean trough will bring the potential for a few
showers to the North Country and perhaps portions of the Finger
Lakes at times...with mainly dry weather favored further west across
far western New York. Later on in the week the closed low should
slowly eject northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes while the
broad/flat ridge to our west builds eastward...with the latter
likely resulting in a warming trend developing.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of this writing...a few leftover spotty light showers/sprinkles
still linger across the North Country due to lingering moisture/
cyclonic flow on the backside of the departing closed low. These
will end early this morning as expansive Canadian high pressure over
Northern Ontario builds southeastward across the Great Lakes and
brings a return to completely dry weather for the bulk of today and
tonight. The building high will also result in our current
widespread lower VFR to MVFR ceilings (with the latter mainly east
of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes
and Southern Tier) giving way to unlimited VFR conditions by
midday/early afternoon. Unlimited VFR conditions are then expected
to largely continue through tonight...with the possible exception of
some patchy fog within the Southern Tier river valleys late.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, with a chance of mid-late afternoon showers across the
North Country.

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with scattered showers across the North
Country.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers
east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering brisk northerly to north-northeasterly flow will continue
to support Small Craft Advisory-worthy conditions on both lakes into
this morning...with winds and wave action then diminishing through
the balance of the day as high pressure builds southeastward across
the Great Lakes.

The high will then provide our region with quiet weather and modest
winds/minimal wave action tonight into early Sunday morning...
before westerly winds freshen some across Lake Ontario during the
rest of Sunday out ahead of yet another cold front. While winds/
waves are currently expected to remain below SCA levels...these will
likely still lead to rather choppy conditions across the eastern end
of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for NYZ004>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion