Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS61 KBUF 161753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1253 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light wintry mix possible east of Lake Ontario late tonight and
Tuesday morning.

2) Above freezing temperatures and rainfall may lead to elevated
flows and ice jamming mid-week, especially for Buffalo area creeks.

3) An active pattern returns by mid-week with chances for rain,
snow, and potentially a wintry mix at times.

4) A second system late this week with rain and snow Friday before
seasonably colder weather returns this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light wintry mix possible east of Lake Ontario late
tonight and Tuesday morning.

A weak shortwave will track through the region tonight and Tuesday
morning, bringing the chance for at least some precipitation.
Although overall moisture is limited, there should be enough along
with some dynamic support from the passing shortwave to produce some
spotty light precipitation. Thermal profiles suggest that the
predominant precipitation type will be rain, expect for areas east
of Lake Ontario where some colder air will reside. We could see up
to an inch of snow across the Tug Hill, with the potential for some
very light freezing rain/freezing drizzle as mid levels dry out,
resulting in some locally slippery driving conditions by early
Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above freezing temperatures and rainfall may lead to
elevated flows and ice jamming mid-week, especially for Buffalo area
creeks.

With slightly above average temperatures early this week above the
freezing mark, runoff from snowpack across the area will lead to
elevated flows on area streams and creeks. Additionally, ice jam
flooding may be a possibility, through thawing degree hour guidance
continues to remain below local thresholds thanks to temperatures
only being 5-10 degF above normal for mid-February. Expected
rainfall between 0.5-1.0" on Wednesday will aid the already melting
snowpack to swell waterways. Latest NAEFS guidance continues to
highlight numerous creeks with > 30% chance of reaching Action Stage
Wednesday. This includes Ellicott Creek, Cayuga Creek, and Cazenovia
Creek in the Buffalo area.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An active pattern returns by mid-week with chances
for rain, snow, and potentially a wintry mix at times.

The first of a handful of low pressure systems will eject northeast
across the central CONUS with an elongated frontal boundary
extending across much of MI and into western/central NY. Broad
isentropic lift along with deep frontogenesis will support
widespread precipitation across western and central NY. Latest NBM
shows probabilities of exceeding 1.0" of QPF maximizes along a line
from Buffalo through Syracuse around 60-70%. However, how that QPF
divides up is not so straight forward.

Current ensemble guidance continues to be sitting between 2 separate
camps with the placement of the 850mb temperature gradient. Majority
of GEFS members are a little deeper with the surface high spreading
into eastern Canada Wednesday, displacing the colder air slightly
farther south complicating precipitation type. EC membership keeps
colder air a little farther north with the majority of the area
outside of the Tug Hill and Jefferson/Lewis Co with mostly rainfall
until the tail end of this event. Low to mid level thermal profiles
keep temperatures aloft mostly in the -5 to 0 degC range so the
forecast remains very sensitive to any additional warming aloft or
cool biases near the surface. Overall, looking like areas south of I-
90 will primarily see rainfall Wednesday, while areas to the north
will see better chances for wintry precip, especially late Wednesday
afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A second system late this week with rain and snow
Friday before seasonably colder weather returns this weekend.

A second shortwave ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies from the
larger scale troughing pattern across the western half of the CONUS
will send another surface low in the Great Lakes region. Widespread
precipitation will spread over western NY early Friday morning,
expanding further east across the state throughout the day. Thermal
profiles will be more supportive of rainfall initially across
western NY as 850mb temperatures will be above 0 degC. The bigger
question will be how cold surface temperatures will be across the
north country with winds out of the northeast associated with the
surface high over the Hudson Bay that may lead to initial complex
ptype scenarios. As the cold front passes through in the late
afternoon and evening, should see a change over to snow for most of
the area, but varying model solutions suggest drier air aloft may
arrive before too long. Regardless, will need to monitor for the
potential of lake enhancement early next weekend on the tail end of
this system. Additionally, 850mb temps dropping back to near or
slightly below normal will result in afternoon highs returning to
the low-30s next weekend after a mild week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level moisture and weak flow will continue to support some
stratus and fog. There will be some improvement in condition this
afternoon especially across the central New York, with CIGS MVFR to
low end VFR.

A weak shortwave will bring some light rain and snow showers to the
region tonight. There is a low chance of -FZRA/-FZDZ at KART after
06Z tonight. Low stratus expected to expand across the entire
region, with IFR to LIFR cigs and areas of fog tonight into Tuesday.


Outlook...

Tuesday...IFR/MVFR in low stratus, a wintry mix arrives late Tuesday
night.

Wednesday...Widespread IFR with rain and/or snow becoming likely.
Some wintry mix including freezing rain also possible in some
locations.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, with pockets of lingering IFR with a chance of
rain and snow.

Friday...Widespread IFR with rain/snow likely.

Saturday...Restrictions possible with a chance of snow and rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds through this evening, before a shortwave passage brings
a brief uptick in southwest winds tonight.

The next window of elevated winds arrives on Wednesday, with
easterly flow picking up on the western and southern shoreline of
Lake Ontario.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion