Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS61 KBUF 190919
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
519 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms today.

2) Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1... A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms
today.

A wavy cold front currently draped across the central Great Lakes
will push eastward today in tandem with a supporting shortwave
impulse...with these features consequently crossing our area from
west to east. Coupled with some weak to modest instability...lift
supplied by the cold front and DCVA/height falls attendant to the
shortwave should help to generate a round of showers and scattered
thunderstorms across our region today...though (as is typical)
coverage will be uneven...with the greatest pcpn chances found
closer to the lakes early in the day...and then inland from the
lakes from late morning into the afternoon. In the wake of the
front...a few more showers/storms will then remain possible later
this afternoon/early this evening in the vicinity of a modest lake
breeze convergence zone arcing from far WNY into the Finger Lakes.
All of this will then quickly fade after sunset with the loss of
heating.

Key Message 2...Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this
weekend.

Depending upon its exact track...another weak wave of low pressure
passing by to our south could potentially bring a few showers back
into the Southern Tier and interior portions of the Finger Lakes
very late tonight and Thursday. Otherwise...dry and comfortable
weather should prevail Thursday through Friday as Canadian high
pressure slides from the Upper Great Lakes to New England.
Conditions will then turn more unsettled over the weekend as upper
level troughing over Ontario Province digs southeastward and
eventually closes off near the southern Ontario/Quebec border. At
the surface...an attendant elongated surface low will push its warm
front into our region Saturday afternoon and evening...followed by
its trailing cold front Saturday night and Sunday. Increasing
moisture and modest/moderate diurnal instability should support the
development of some showers and scattered thunderstorms with the
warm front Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. Another
round of more widespread showers and a embedded storms will then
likely follow Saturday night into early Sunday as the cold front
crosses our region...with cooler cyclonic flow/upper troughing in
the wake of the front then supporting some additional instability
showers/storms for the balance of Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will slowly cross western and north-central NY this
morning through midday/early afternoon, accompanied by a broken line
of showers and scattered thunderstorms, which may bring brief
periods of MVFR/IFR VSBY. Marginal MVFR to low VFR CIGS are expected
for the first half of the day ahead of the front as well. A few more
scattered showers and storms will be possible behind the cold front
this afternoon, with brief bouts of localized flight reductions
possible with any heavier shower/storm, otherwise CIGS are expected
to gradually improve back to widespread VFR through the second half
of the day.

Any lingering showers will taper off after sunset, leaving mainly
dry weather and VFR flight conditions across the bulk of the area
tonight (Wednesday night). The exception will be the possibility for
some patchy fog formation during the second half of the night as
high pressure builds in with partial clearing and surface winds
becoming light. Most favorable areas look to be across the higher
terrain of the western Southern Tier (KJHW), as well as in and near
river valleys/lakes.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely,
although localized fog with MVFR to LIFR VSBY in/near river/lake
valleys is possible around daybreak on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A modest (10-15 knot) southwesterly flow will be in place across the
area into this morning out ahead of an approaching cold front...with
winds then veering to westerly and then northwesterly this afternoon
and evening in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds will then
lighten overnight and turn more northeasterly on Lake Erie in
response to a weak wave of low pressure making its way across the
Ohio Valley.

On Thursday the aforementioned weak wave will slide east from the
Upper Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic states...with high
pressure over the Upper Great Lakes otherwise sliding from the Upper
Great Lakes to New England through Friday. This will allow for winds
to become lighter and more variable in direction for much of this
time frame...before turning more easterly/northeasterly during
Friday. Modest southeasterly to southerly flow will then develop
Friday night and Saturday as the ridge exits off the east coast...
and elongated low pressure pushes east across the central Great
Lakes and Southern Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JJR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion