Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS61 KBUF 100647
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued for Jefferson and Lewis counties Wednesday
through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snowmelt along with widespread rainfall will bring the potential
for flooding, especially near the Tug Hill and the Black River Basin
starting Wednesday.

2) Low chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

3) An active weather pattern is expected late in the week
through the weekend with a roller coaster of temperatures and
chances for rain and snow, along with periods of gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snowmelt along with widespread rainfall will bring
the potential for flooding, especially near the Tug Hill and the
Black River Basin starting Wednesday.

The milder pattern will continue through Wednesday with temperatures
15 to 25 degrees above normal and allow for additional snowmelt and
contribute to runoff. Though some scattered rain showers will occur
today, a more widespread soaking rain with the potential for
thunderstorms is expected tonight through Wednesday evening.
Rainfall amounts of one to two inches is possible, and will have the
potential to cause rises on area rivers and creeks. Combined with
saturated ground conditions and continued snow melt, the risk for
flooding is increasing for areas east of Lake Ontario, where
substantial snow depth exists. Areas across the Tug Hill, such as at
Highmarket, still have over 30 inches of snow on the ground as of
Monday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Jefferson and Lewis
counties Wednesday through Thursday afternoon.

Rises to Action stage are possible on Buffalo areas creeks if
these rainfall amounts are realized.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

A surface low is expected to track eastward from the southern
Great Lakes to southern Ontario Wednesday sending a strong cold
front through the region. Increasing shear and instability
ahead of the front will result in a potential for thunderstorm
development, peaking in the afternoon and evening. Uncertainty
exists in how any cloud cover and rain from earlier in the day
affects instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Confidence is low that any substantial clearing will occur,
however shear profiles are favorable ahead of the cold front,
so can`t rule out severe storms if thunderstorms develop and/or
move into the forecast area from the southwest. The SPC Day 2
Outlook has southwest New York in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A progressive, active weather pattern is expected
late in the week through the weekend with a roller coaster of
temperatures and chances for rain and snow, along with periods of
gusty winds.

Significantly colder air will continue to make inroads across
western and northcentral NY on Thursday, with 850mb temps falling to
around -10C to -12C. Some wraparound/westerly upslope snow showers
may linger into Thursday morning (especially east of Lake Ontario),
however mid level moisture will quickly get stripped away bringing
an end to any snow shower activity. Another half inch of snowfall
may accumulate across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
Thursday morning.

Next frontal system will bring the likelihood of another round of
rain and snow on Friday, but more notably the potential for a round
of strong winds. Guidance still not locked in on strength, position,
and track of the low, which will ultimately determine the placement
of an associated strong LLJ. NBM looks to light on the winds at this
point, with the LREF showing 40%-50% probabilities of gusts to 40
mph. Will not raise winds with this update and wait for better model
consensus. Another shot of colder air will combine with lingering
deeper moisture to bring the possibility for a round of accumulating
snows to the area Friday night into a portion of Saturday,
especially across the higher terrain. Strong winds may also continue
through Friday night.

Yet another system may bring another round of rain,snow, and wind to
the area for the second half of the weekend into the start of the
new work week. A brief warmup on Sunday will be followed by by
another shot of much colder air by next Monday as another strong
cold front plows across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will continue through at least 12z. Low level
moisture will begin to increase this morning, with some rain showers
developing ahead of an approaching warm frontal segment. A northeast
wind will develop north of this warm front, with marine layer stratus
of IFR or low end MVFR reaching south of Lake Ontario through the
afternoon hours, with higher terrain IFR also likely developing by
this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain
showers. Chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. Windy Wednesday
night.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR/IFR with a few light snow showers likely.
Windy.

Friday...Areas of MVFR with rain/snow showers likely. Windy.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a snow shower. Windy.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of lighter winds is expected today before another period of
stronger winds arrives by the middle of the week.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
     for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/JM/PP/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion