Forecast Discussion

705
FXUS61 KBUF 172320
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory issued for areas generally north of I-90
to the east of Buffalo for freezing rain potential on Wednesday.
Confidence in substantial melting of snow and ice breakup on
rivers is now lower due to colder air and less snow/ice melt
potential in most areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog through Wednesday morning.

2) Above freezing temperatures and rainfall may lead to elevated
flows and ice jams through the mid-week.

3) Widespread precipitation event Wednesday with rain, snow,
and freezing rain.

4) Another widespread light precipitation event late this week
with primarily rain across western NY Friday changing over to
light snowfall Friday night, potentially lingering into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog through Wednesday morning.

Areas of fog remain in portions of the area this evening,
including metro Buffalo as a southwest flow of mild and moist
air crosses the cold lake ice. Nearly all other areas have seen
visibilities improve significantly through the day. As cooling
begins tonight and boundary layer flow decreases, dense fog will
become widespread once again. Dense Fog Advisory remains in
effect for all of western and north central New York through 7
AM Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above freezing temperatures and rainfall may
lead to elevated flows and ice jams through mid-week.

Temperatures through Wednesday are expected to be near or above
freezing across western New York and away from the immediate
southern Lake Ontario shoreline. This will allow for snowmelt
runoff to continue. There will be a continued weakening of ice
on creeks and more importantly allow for precipitation that
arrives Wednesday to fall as rain across much of western New
York. Expectations for temperature increases on Wednesday are
limited, however, as a cold northeasterly flow for many areas
will prevent temperature rises above the mid 30s for most areas
north of the Southern Tier. As such, snowmelt and ice rotting on
creeks will be slow, even with rainfall.

Ice jam flooding remains a low possibility, through thawing
degree hour guidance continues to remain below local thresholds
with temperatures only a few degrees above normal for mid-
February.

Rainfall forecasts generally continue between a half and one
inch, however warm frontal ascent would need to be enhanced by a
passing surface wave along the front, which is only favored on
a small subset of guidance, thus confidence is that most areas
will likely see the lower end of that range. Latest NAEFS
guidance continues to highlight several Buffalo area creeks with
a > 30% chance of reaching Action Stage. This includes Cayuga
Creek, and Cazenovia Creek.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread precipitation event Wednesday with rain,
snow, and freezing rain.

Pacific-based low pressure will track east from the central CONUS
and into the forecast area late tonight. This system will move
along a tightening, roughly NW-SE oriented mid-level thermal
gradient across the Great Lakes. Deep isentropic lift and
frontogenesis will cause precipitation to overspread the region
from the west starting very late tonight and Wednesday.

Thermal profiles are trending a bit more problematic as the
precipitation overspreads the area. With increasing
northeasterly flow and colder air infiltrating as such,
confidence is growing that most areas along and north of I-90 to
the east of Buffalo will to or below freezing for much of the
precipitation event on Wednesday. However, for points south of
I-90, most if not all of this will fall as rain. Further north,
cold air looks to be deep enough in the North Country for all
snow. Because of better confidence in colder air along the
southern shore counties of Lake Ontario down to I-90 or so,
Winter Weather Advisories for freezing rain have been issued.
For snow across the North Country, snow amounts are also very
marginal (2-4") in necessitating an Advisory there as well.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Another widespread light precipitation event
late this week with primarily rain across western NY Friday
changing over to light snowfall Friday night, potentially
lingering into the weekend.

A second shortwave ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies from the
larger scale troughing pattern across the western half of the CONUS
will send another surface low towards the Great Lakes region. This
surface low will track further east compared to the mid-week system
across MI before occluding with stronger southerly flow overhead of
western NY driving the warm front into the vicinity of Lake Ontario.
850mb temps look to be in the 2-5 degC range during the day Friday,
which is slightly warmer than previous runs. This would help keep
the dominant ptype rainfall across western NY before the cold front
passes through Friday afternoon. From there, could see generally
light snowfall spread across the region Friday night. This recent
trend is reflected in the latest NBM with probabilities of exceeding
4" of snowfall Friday replaced with low chances (008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ001>005-011.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/Fries/TMA
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion