RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC MD 1972

MD 1972 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST
MD 1972 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

Areas affected...The Alabama...and Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262324Z - 270130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado threat may materialize this evening as a line of
storms moves along the coast within a warm frontal zone. This threat
will be conditional on sufficient inland advection of higher
low-level theta-e air; trends will be monitored for a possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations along the MS/AL/FL Gulf Coast show
predominantly mid to upper 60s ahead of an eastward-moving band of
convection. A few maritime observations show higher theta-e
low-level air (denoted by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) to the
south of an offshore warm front. Latest forecast sounding analysis
suggests that this higher-quality air is required to support robust
surface-based convection. Although onshore flow will generally
remain modest (15-20 knots) ahead of the band of convection, some
recent model solutions hint that the warm front may move onto the
north-central Gulf Coast during the 00-03 UTC period and support a
spatially limited warm sector along the immediate coast. Strong
low-level shear (500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) is noted in recent KMOB VWP
observations, which may support a few organized cells within the
convective band, though the modest thermodynamic profiles will
modulate the overall tornado threat.

..Moore/Thompson.. 11/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30138803 30238837 30488843 30738829 30748794 30758754
            30788699 30758645 30598612 30358568 30198565 30108590
            30268634 30278681 30218736 30138803 

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