Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
FXUS61 KBUF 182347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight. High pressure
will then build back into the region Monday, with this system
influencing our weather through the end of the week. This will
result in an extended period of dry weather and below normal


A weak backdoor cold front continues to drop southward across
CNY and the Genesee Valley this evening. This front will pass
across the region dry, though temperatures aloft will become
just cold enough to support lake effect snow. However dry
boundary layer conditions and through the lower atmosphere will
limit this snow to just a few flurries south of Lake Ontario
later tonight.

Clear skies through much of the overnight, with a few mid level
clouds expanding south of Lake Ontario behind the cold front.

Clear skies and light winds in the North Country will allow
temperatures to drop to near the zero degree mark again tonight,
with the typical coolest spots around the Tug Hill likely to
see some negative single digit readings. Otherwise, western NY
will be in the teens to around 20.

On Monday high pressure across western Ontario province will
ridge toward our region. There will be some lingering lake
effect clouds during the morning which will erode and giveway to
mostly sunny skies by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will remain
on the cool side, with highs ranging from the mid 20s to mid


A compact closed upper level low will move east of the Rockies while
a surface low deepens across the Central Plains Monday night. High
pressure will remain blocked southwest of James Bay and low pressure
will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley and eventually to the
east coast Tuesday night. This will lead to dry, cold northeasterly
flow across the eastern Great Lakes. The fourth Nor`easter of March
will move northeastward, well off the New England coast Wednesday-
Wednesday night. Other than some mid-high level clouds and minor
lake effect and upslope clouds south of Lake Ontario, little to no
impact is expected across the region from this system.

Temperatures will stay below normal as cold, Canadian air continues
to filter into the region. Low temperatures will range from the
teens across Western NY to the single digits in the North Country
Monday night and Tuesday night. High temperatures will reach the 30s
and 20s higher elevations Tuesday and Wednesday.


The quiet weather pattern looks to continue across western and north
central New York through Friday, as persistent high pressure
remains in place from northern Ontario province into the Great
Lakes. Temperatures during this period should continue to remain
below average.

The next potential for precipitation will come late Saturday
into Sunday. A Pacific shortwave will lead to cyclogenesis over
the plains by Friday, with this cyclone tracking through the
Ohio Valley late Saturday and Saturday night. With western and
north central New York staying on the cold side of this system,
a light snowfall is possible, particularly for the Southern
Tier. This system will quickly wrap up over the Mid-Atlantic
states into another coastal low, while high pressure fills in
behind it, resulting in another quiet and cool Sunday, although
some wrap around snow showers are possible for central New York.


For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are expected through the
cycle, with light winds veering from the northwest to northeast.

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR.


Behind a weak backdoor cold front, conditions may briefly approach
small craft criteria along the south shores of Lake Ontario late
tonight into Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will ridge
into the region through mid- weak with light winds and negligible





NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion