Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 122155
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
555 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and
dry weather through the weekend. Unsettled weather returns Monday
through midweek with chances for some showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnal cu will continue to dissipate through the early evening as
the sun sets. There will be some addtional cloud cover east of Lake
Ontario through later this evening as southwestern edge of the base
of the mid and upper level trough pivots southeast through northern
NY. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and light winds will promote
efficient radiational cooling. Some localized fog will develop in
the Southern Tier river valleys. Lows will bottom out in the 40s for
a good chunk of the area, with low to mid 50s closer to the Lakes.

Saturday, surface high pressure will drift east across lower Great
Lakes. Any valley fog will burn off by mid morning, leaving plenty
of sunshine with dry air and subsidence in place. A tad warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 70s in most areas, with lower 70s for the
higher terrain.

Saturday night, surface high pressure will maintain dry and quiet
weather. There will be an increase in cloud cover across Western NY
with a stray shower possibly making it as far east as NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania as upstream convection (MCS) drops SE across central
and lower Michigan into Ohio and Indiana. Otherwise, another
comfortably cool night with lows in the upper 40s in the cooler
spots to the 50s elsewhere and around 60 near the lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad ridge will be firmly anchored over the western half of the
country during this period...while energy dropping into a downstream
trough will eventually evolve into a closed low in the vcnty of our
forecast area. This is not an overly unsettled pattern for our
area...but it will translate into increased clouds and eventually
the opportunity for scattered showers. Sunday should still be
largely rain free...while the highest chance for any shower activity
will be Monday and Tuesday afternoons when 10c H85 air will lend
itself to some enhanced diurnal instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad trough will extend south across much of the Great Lakes and
into the Mid-Atlantic heading into Tuesday night. Said trough will
persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the remainder
of the work week. In the meantime, a few shortwave troughs will
round the base of the longwave trough Wednesday supporting the
formation of a closed upper level low over the northern Mid-
Atlantic. This low will then pull northeast by the end of the week,
which will alter the upper level pattern and begin to pull the
longwave trough away from the area.

Overall, the close proximity of the low through the mid-section of
the week will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies and chances for
showers and afternoon thunderstorms throughout the majority of the
period. Additionally with the troughing pattern aloft, cooler
Canadian air will filter across the region for the mid section of
the week with highs averaging slightly below normal for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any leftover diurnal cu will continue to dissipate through the early
evening hours as the sun sets. Some valley fog will develop across
the Southern Tier river valleys bringing localized IFR conditions
that may impact KJHW during the second half of tonight. Otherwise,
surface high pressure building in from the west will allow
widespread VFR flight conditions to prevail.

Other than some localized valley fog through mid morning Saturday,
high pressure will drift overhead with widespread VFR conditions
continuing through the day.

Outlook...
Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms with local/brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
A fresh 10-15 knot northwest breeze will continue to bring choppy
conditions across Lake Ontario tonight.

High pressure will drift east across the lower Great Lakes late
tonight through Saturday, with winds becoming light. Relatively
light winds expected to continue through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JM
NEAR TERM...AR/JM
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AR/JM

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion