Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBUF 271848
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Quebec will remain ridged across New York State
and New England through Thursday, before a weak upper low slides
just south of our area Thursday night and Friday bringing a few
scattered showers to areas south of Lake Ontario. High pressure then
re-establishes itself across the region bringing another stretch of
dry weather through at least the first part of next week.
Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday, before day to day
warming pushes readings well above average for this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over Quebec continues to dominate the weather over the
region this afternoon. A bit breezy with east winds gusting over 20
mph near the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline west of Rochester.
Temperatures most areas reside in the mid to upper 60s to even some
lower 70s over parts of the Niagara Frontier. It is also quite dry
as RH values are as low as 17-20 pct over parts of the western Niagara
Frontier.

Weak upper low near Chicago drifts slowly east across southern
Michigan tonight, while strong high pressure remains ridged across
our area which will keep dry weather intact. Weak warm air advection
will move through aloft overnight producing intervals of mid and
high clouds across western NY. Lows tonight will fall back into the
low and mid 40s and could even drop into the upper 30s inland east
of Lake Ontario. It does not appear to get as chilly as last night
though.

High pressure starts to weaken Thursday as it moves into New
England. The weather over western NY will become increasingly under
the influence of the approaching upper low. Most locations should
stay dry though isolated showers could work into far western NY on
eastern fringe of the upper low, similar to what is occurring today
over parts of Ohio. THe high will keep elsewhere dry on Thursday. A
more southeasterly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 60s
to low 70s (perhaps mid 70s toward the St. Lawrence valley), with
mid 60s higher terrain.

Greatest chances for some showers arrive Thursday night as the upper
low drifts to our south and weak warm, moist advection supports
expansion of showers into much of our area, especially south of Lake
Ontario. Strongest Q-vector convergence and jet support remains well
to south, but at the least weak lift and sufficient deep moisture
will support scattered showers into Friday. Even when showers taper
on Friday, there will be an abundance of low clouds lingering
between the exiting system and high pressure persisting to the
northeast of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying ridge stretching from the Lower Mississippi valley to
the Upper Great Lakes will then offer at least partial clearing
Friday night with no chc for any pcpn. Friday evening football games
should go off without a hitch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...A LONG stretch of stupendous weather will arrive this weekend and
last into next week...

The only fly in the ointment might come in the form of a weakening
front as it runs into the 1025mb sfc ridge over the region by
Sunday. This feature may introduce some mid-high clouds but is
looking rather moisture starved. Otherwise...as was mentioned before
ridging aloft and at the sfc will `guarantee` that the lower Great
Lakes will remain precipitation free for the foreseeable future.
That is...this entire period which goes through Wednesday. Not only
will it be precipitation free...a day to day warming trend is
expected through Tuesday that will translate into mercury readings
topping out in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s.

These values will be a SOLID 10F-15F degrees above normal. Due to
the continued dry antecedent conditions...have continued to aim
above most guidance packages with this update. In fact...have added
a degree or two to most locales for max temps...especially along the
lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

By the end of this period (Wednesday) there is some indication that
the upper ridge may weaken (flatten) but not enough to introduce any
precipitation. Again continued dry and above normal temperatures
will persist across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across the region through the 18z TAF cycle
with variable mid and high cloud cover.

Modest easterly breezes will continue across KBUF and KIAG through
this afternoon with gusts to 20kts possible. Winds will then subside
some this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers south
of Lake Ontario.
Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds have increased this afternoon and it has become quite
choppy across the western part of Lake Ontario resulting in the
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore zone from
Niagara River to Hamlin Beach through this evening. After winds
diminish later tonight, expect similar conditions across western
Lake Ontario again Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and waves
across the waters will remain well below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR/RSH
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...JLA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion