Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 281155 CCA
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will continue to cross the region this morning. This will
be accompanied by accumulating lake enhanced snows early on east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and a return to sub arctic temperatures
through most of the upcoming weekend. We will be warmer at times
next week, though extent and timing of that warm up is still in
question.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Leading trough has been caught by incoming arctic cold front,
merging over southern Lake Ontario. The front will slowly press
southward across the region and should be clear of all our area by
mid morning. Lake enhanced snows continue east of Lake Erie and
especially to east and southeast of Lake Ontario. That band of snow
produced 6 inches overnight at Henderson on west shoreline of
Jefferson county and also produced a couple of lightning strikes
west of Oswego while dropping vsby to less than 1/4 mile as the
band came onshore. Now though, the band of snow has shifted inland
and is starting to break apart. Winter weather advisories likely
will be able to cancelled early, but will wait just a bit longer.
Handled the progression of the band farther inland earlier with SPS
covering brief lower vsby and heavier snowfall rates as this
impacted the leading portion of the morning commute. By daybreak
though as winds turn northerly behind the front cutting off westerly
fetch, these snow showers should continue to diminish.

Snow briefly flared up east of Lake Erie, even after most of the
night it looked unimpressive. BUF VWP indicates flow just off the
sfc has veered more NNW, but there is just enough westerly flow
above this to allow the band to not completely fall apart yet. Also
a bit of a disturbance sliding by to the south that may be aiding in
the recent expansion. Overall, up to another inch of snow could
occur through daybreak before snow showers diminish rapidly the rest
of the morning. Other than these concentrated morning lake snows,
main theme rest of the day will be becoming colder with a spray of
snow showers south of Lake Ontario. Little if any accumulation from
these as inversion will be steadily lowering. Temps are falling now,
and will continue to slowly fall into the mid teens the rest of the
day and even into the single digits east of Lake Ontario.

The lake snows will end off Lk Erie this evening as winds veer to
the northeast, but light greasy lake snows will persist south of
Lake Ontario through the night. Temps will bottom out between 5 and -
5F over the western counties, with mins temps in the teens below
zero east of Lk Ontario. Winds will not completely slacken as center
of high will be well to the north across Quebec. Thus, expect wind
chills as low as 30 below east of Lake Ontario and as low as 15
below over good portion of Southern Tier to the northern Finger
Lakes. A new set of wind chill warnings (east of Lake Ontario) and
advisories elsewhere were issued. These will carry on through midday
Saturday as the chill persists.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Bitterly cold air will remain entrenched across the region as we
open the period with wind chill headlines remaining in effect
through Saturday morning for the eastern Lake Ontario region,
northern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. Lingering light lake effect
snow showers south of Lake Ontario will come to an end by midday or
so, otherwise a dry and cold day with highs in the single digits and
teens.

High pressure sinks southeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday night.
Meanwhile a weakening Clipper type low moves into the central Great
Lakes. This will cause winds to slowly back later Saturday night
through Sunday night as high pressure departs to the southeast and
weak Clipper system slides by to our southwest during this time
period. With 850Ts remaining well into the negative teens C, the
combination of additional moisture associated with the weak surface
low and an upper trough moving into the region will be enough to re-
ignite the lake effect machine with lake effect snow showers
developing east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday
night. As winds continue to slowly back with time, lake effect snow
showers will be directed northeast of the Lake Erie and east of Lake
Ontario by Sunday afternoon. Lake effect snow will eventually locate
itself northeast of Lake Ontario as well by later Sunday night into
Monday morning before activity off both lakes dissipates as main
upper level trough axis moves east of our area and winds shift to
the south bringing in warmer air aloft. There will likely be at
least minor accumulations associated with the lake bands, however
exact timing, strength and placement are still somewhat in question
at this time. Weak flow will also limit the inland extent of the
bands. Outside of the main lake effect activity, mainly dry
conditions are expected.

Another cold one Saturday night with lows again in the negative
teens across the North Country and near zero elsewhere. Wind chill
headlines may again be needed for some areas. Core of coldest air
shifts east on Sunday with some warming of our airmass taking place
with `balmy` teens and 20s expected for highs. Sunday night will not
be as chilly with lows mainly in the single digits, with low teens
across the lake plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Drier air and continued warming aloft will end any lingering lake
effect snow showers and flurries northeast of Lake Ontario Monday
morning. Otherwise, southerly flow on the back side of strong high
pressure moving from southeastern Quebec Monday to Nova Scotia by
Tuesday will bring warmer and drier weather for the first part of
the work week. Highs will top out in the 20s on Monday and be well
into the 30s on Tuesday.

Some changes in model consensus toward the mid and latter part of
the work week with regards to the anticipated warmup. Next cold
front either stalls over or just east of the area sometime
Tuesday night or Wednesday bringing the chance of rain and snow
showers with it. With the further eastward progression of the
cold front and precipitation, high temps on Wednesday will be
held down some from earlier thinking with mainly upper 30s to
lower 40s. Model consensus has also shifted the track of the
next low pressure system a bit further east, now taking it very
near or right over NYS. This would not only bring likely chances
for rain and snow, but also keep highs on Thursday from
reaching no higher than the the 40s. Still plenty of uncertainty
so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Intermittent light snow and flurries will impact majority of
the terminals through daybreak as the arctic front moves
through. BUF, IAG, ROC and JHW will see mainly MVFR conditions,
though a brief snow shower with IFR vsby is possible. ART will not
see much snow.

Overall though expect lake effect snow to rapidly weaken the rest
of the day as boundary layer flow becomes northerly and the airmass
dries significantly. This will produce a spray of lake effect
flurries and light snow showers south of the lakes with areas of
MVFR/brief IFR. This may continue through tonight mainly south of
Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR but brief MVFR in light snow showers at KROC
and possibly at KJHW.
Sunday...VFR but MVFR possible at KART in snow showers.
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Arctic front crosses this morning. West winds up to 20 knots
immediately behind the front will veer to the north-northeast
this afternoon while diminishing to 10-15 knots. Small craft
advisories remain in effect as outlined below.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ007-008.
     Wind Chill Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ006.
     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JLA
MARINE...JLA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion