Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
FXUS61 KBUF 080228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

High pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes this weekend will
supply us with mainly fair and dry weather. This will include a
gradual day to day warming trend that will peak on Monday when
temperatures in some areas will climb into the upper 80s to near
90. A cold front will follow Monday night and Tuesday with some
unsettled weather.


A weak upper level trough is moving east across the eastern
Great Lakes region tonight. Most of the showers from this
together with earlier isolation have ended, with just strato-cu
left over. Continued subsidence is expected as the upper level
trough moves east. With at least some overnight clearing, inland
areas should see valley fog.

High pressure will then remain over the region Saturday and
Saturday night. This should guarantee fair and dry weather in
the west with only a slight chance for a shower from Finger
Lakes east.


A continuation of quiet weather with additional warming is
expected for the latter half of the weekend and the start of
the next work week. Surface high pressure will slowly slide
towards the Eastern Seaboard Sunday before sliding off into the
Atlantic Monday. Though a weak upper level shortwave disturbance
appears to pass across the region Sunday, surface high pressure
will dominate, thus limiting the potential for diurnal showers
and storms. Highs on Sunday will climb up into the low to mid

Similar to Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance will traverse
across the region Monday. However, with the high pressure
bubble pushing off into the Atlantic, diurnal showers along far
Western New York can not be ruled out. In addition to this,
southwesterly flow will return Monday resulting in an increase
in heat and humidity. Highs Monday will approach the mid to
upper 80s, although a few locations along the lake plains
through the Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes regions
could reach the low 90s. Provided the rise in humidity levels,
this may cross into heat advisory criteria. More than likely,
the apparent heat values will rise up into the low 90s for a
majority of the areas previously listed.


As an upper level trough crosses the northern portions of the
Manitoba and Ontario Canadian provinces Monday through Tuesday
night, the area will begin to see height falls aloft starting Monday
night. This will mark the start of a period of unsettled weather for
the middle portions of the work week. At the surface, the
associated cold front appears to make its passage across the
region Monday night through Tuesday, with the best chances for
showers and storms Tuesday. Depending on the timing of the
frontal passage, some of the storms have the potential to be on
the stronger side Tuesday. A quicker frontal passage will hinder
the chances for storms to become strong, thus will have to keep
an eye on this system as time progresses.

Some showers may linger into Tuesday night before high pressure
builds back into the region. With the return of high pressure
overhead, mostly dry weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.
However, some of the models depict the front from earlier in
the period stalling out just to our south. The combination of
the stalled front together with the passage of the upper level
trough axis will be enough to ignite a few diurnally fed showers
and storms.

A stronger shortwave will traverse northeast across the Ohio Valley
Friday, promoting the formation of a low along the stalled
boundary. This may allow the above noted stalled boundary to
drift northward. As a result, increased shower and storms
chances for Friday.

Behind the cold frontal passage Tuesday, temperatures will dip ever
so slightly. However with lower humidity levels, conditions
will be bearable. Highs throughout the period will climb up into
the low to mid 80s.


VFR conditions are expected for most of Western NY overnight,
although some patchy fog will form late, especially in the
valleys of the Southern Tier. The latter should become extensive
enough for IFR conditions at KJHW after 08z.

High pressure will then guarantee VFR conditions with light
winds Saturday.


Saturday night...VFR, but MVFR to IFR in valley fog across the
Southern Tier late.
Sunday through Monday...Mainly
VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR
Wednesday...VFR but with a shower or thunderstorm possible.


High pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes into
Saturday. A southwest wind will increase Sunday on Lake Erie and
the western end of Lake Ontario, but conditions are expected to
remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.






NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion