Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
FXUS61 KBUF 010811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
411 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

A persistent upper level storm will finally lose its grip on our
region today. This will lead to improving conditions with mainly dry
weather through Thursday. Meanwhile, daytime temperatures will
remain below normal with notable warming not expected until the end
of the week.


A few lingering light showers across the Southern Tier will dry up
by mid morning if not sooner, leaving mainly dry weather for the
rest of the day. A drier low level airmass will advect into the area
from the north. This will bring increasing amounts of sunshine,
first for the North Country and then to areas near Lake Ontario
by midday, spreading further south through the afternoon. The
last places to clear will be the higher terrain of the western
Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, where northeast upslope
flow will continue to support clouds through at least early to
mid afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40s across lower
elevations and around 40 on the hills.

Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure settles over the
Great Lakes. However, clouds will increase again as northeast
flow around exiting upper low advects low-level moisture back
into the region. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s on
the lake plains to the upper 20s across interior sections of the


Upper low from eastern Canada to the Mid Atlantic states eastward
into Atlantic keeps a cool airmass in place to close the week. Highs
both Thursday and Friday will be in the 40s for most locations. Thu
night into Friday, mid level shortwave within the upper trough wraps
back to the west, pushing enough deeper moisture and forcing in form
of mid-level frontogenesis to produce scattered rain and snow
showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario. At the least will see
mostly cloudy skies across all of the region. One last shortwave
diving into the exiting trough could lead to lingering shower or two
Friday night east of Lake Ontario, but will see decreasing clouds
and warmer conditions as highs Saturday reach well into the 50s away
from the immediate Lake Ontario shore where it will stay in the


A weakening mid level trough and surface cold front will approach
the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday night, then cross the area
Sunday. The stronger forcing will move northeast across Hudson Bay,
leaving an ever weakening low level boundary to move east across our
area. The weak forcing and lack of moisture will only support a low
chance of a few scattered light showers Sunday, along with an
increase in cloud cover. Any showers that do develop will end by
Sunday evening, with dry weather returning Sunday night.

Weak high pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes
Monday. The next mid level trough and weak surface low will then
move into the western Great Lakes Monday night, before moving into
the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. This will bring the
next chance of rain to our region, although at this point it appears
to be a weak system.

Temperatures will continue to run a little above average Sunday
through the early part of next week, although a cooler airmass will
be lurking just northeast of the area across Quebec and New England.
It would only take a small change in the longwave pattern to bring
this cool air into our region.


Conditions are mainly VFR over the region early this morning.
Although clear skies have reached the eastern lake Ontario
region and along the south shore of Lake Ontario, some stratocu
remains with cigs generally 5-6 kft, with patchy IFR cigs along
the Southern Tier, including KJHW. Drier air arriving from the
northeast will allow areas to remain or improve to VFR by mid to
late morning.


Tonight and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially along and
east of the Genesee Valley.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.


Small craft advisories are in effect for the Lake Ontario nearshore
waters west of Mexico Bay and the lower Niagara River through this
morning for moderate northeast winds. While northeast winds will be
found on Lake Erie, the flow should be easterly enough to keep the
highest waves and wind gusts in Canadian waters. Nevertheless,
conditions on Lake Erie will be choppy through today.

As high pressure noses to the south across the region tonight and
Thursday, the weak surface pressure gradient will allow winds and
waves to subside.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ043-
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for



LONG TERM...Hitchcock

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion