Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 052347
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity will increase
tonight with a cold frontal passage and remain possible
throughout the day on Saturday. Behind this system, a stretch of
fair weather is expected Sunday through the first half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Composite radar and visible satellite images continue to  depict a
cold front over the Central Great Lakes. The front will push through
the region tonight allowing for scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Lows tonight will drop down into the low 60s.

The upper level trough associated with the cold front will pass
through the eastern Great Lakes enter into New England Saturday.
Additionally, a secondary surface trough will pass through the
Northern New York and Vermont supporting the chances for more
showers and storms across the region. The best chance for
thunderstorm activity lies across the North Country. With the
cooler air in place from the cold frontal passage, highs on
Saturday will climb up into the upper 60s and low 70s.

Shower activity will dwindle down Saturday evening and night as the
upper level and surface troughs push further into New England. Lows
will drop down into the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the persistent upper level trough finally reaches the Canadian
maritimes on Sunday, high pressure builds across the eastern Great
Lakes. Expect cool temperatures Sunday with highs only in mid to
upper 60s and lows Sunday night around 50s near the lake shores but
into the mid 40s well away from the lakes. High Monday rebound to
near normal mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will approach and pass across the Lower Lakes
Sunday - Tuesday bringing dry weather and an initial refreshing
airmass that will become very warm by Tuesday. On Tuesday a plume of
warmer air aloft will eject out of the Plains, with 850 hPa
temperatures in the upper teens to around 20C bringing daytime highs
Tuesday well into the 80s. A few spot 90s in the Genesee Valley will
be possible. Temperatures will again climb well into the 80s
Wednesday. With the axis of the warmer air aloft and upper level
ridge axis now eastward, and clouds increasing towards the
west...expect our central and eastern areas to be a few degrees
warmer than far WNY.

Global models are slowing the advection of moisture and surface
frontal boundary for midweek. Perhaps a developing extra tropical
low off the east coast will slow this upstream frontal boundary
more...leaving Wednesday dry...with chances for showers not until
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While a cold front will slowly cross through the region overnight
with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm...generally VFR
conditions can be expected. The exception could be across the
Southern Tier where a few hours of MVFR cigs will be possible after
06z.

VFR conditions are then anticipated for Saturday...although some
showers will be possible during the afternoon. There may even be
some gusty thunderstorms across the North Country.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes tonight. Although
winds and waves will remain well below SCA criteria, there will be a
higher risk for thunderstorm activity.

Winds will freshen somewhat in the wake of the front late tonight
and Saturday. Choppy conditions will be possible over the eastern
half of Lake Ontario Saturday afternoon and evening.

Winds and waves will lower again within a northerly flow Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/RSH
NEAR TERM...EAJ/RSH
SHORT TERM...Levan
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion