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    Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

    Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

    Day 4-8 Outlook
    Day 4 - 8 Outlook
    Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
    D4Sun, Sep 23, 2018 - Mon, Sep 24, 2018 D7Wed, Sep 26, 2018 - Thu, Sep 27, 2018
    D5Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - Tue, Sep 25, 2018 D8Thu, Sep 27, 2018 - Fri, Sep 28, 2018
    D6Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - Wed, Sep 26, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
    PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
    1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
    2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
    3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
    POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

    Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
     Forecast Discussion