Forecast Discussion for BUF NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBUF 190603
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several
passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers,
graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow
accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around
sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the
daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will
run below average through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have significantly raised pops east of Lake Ontario where a broad
area of light to occasionally moderate upslope snow has developed
within the northwest flow. Additional snowfall amounts in this area
through daybreak will be an inch or two...meanwhile negligible
accumulations of light lake snow will be found southeast of Lake
Erie.

A sub 100mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will
slowly drift east during the course of the day. In the process...an
elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along
with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with
the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread
snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of
the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing
and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps `warming` to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.

Snowfall amounts throughout the region for the upcoming day will
generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts
could be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most
insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region.

Otherwise today will continue to feature below normal temperatures
peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet
will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this
period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal
effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through
the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and
cellular.

Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night
will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch
or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake
Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.

An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday,
with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers
during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow,
yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower
terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.

The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect
snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting
synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could
see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches
east of Lake Ontario.

The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow
southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon
hours.

It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts
to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some
limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.

Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on
Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime
temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this
period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible
phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a
developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop
over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing
this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger
Lakes eastward is possible.

Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into
Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another
storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may
bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during
the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier
lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites
such as KJHW.

Later today...an elevated frontal boundary will support
deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce
vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to
include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.

The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early
Tuesday evening while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The
exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk
Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR
conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated
brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions
across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.

Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday
morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open
waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.

Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night,
before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will
likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
         night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion